Is the Boom Over?

It has been nearly a year since the Boom Phase began in November 2024.

Shortly after, in January 2025, I predicted the Pokémon boom would end around December 2025.

We’re getting close… And the market might be agreeing with me…

Market prices on top products have been flat or down over the past month, putting an end to months of surging prices.

Just look at Evolving Skies booster boxes:

And Obsidian Flames PC ETBs:

Many product have been trading sideways, killing the momentum we’ve been enjoying throughout the year. This begs the question:

Is the boom over?

Let’s look at some more data.

Beyond the sideways prices, Google Trends data for “pokemon card” show searches are down as of Octobter 2025. It certainly suggests demand for Pokémon cards is dropping…

But, this is not the first dip we’ve experienced during this Boom Phase: July of this year saw similar Google Trends drops and sideways price movement. Just before it rocketed into yet another price surge. The current market plateau could be no different.

If we’re to see the current Boom Phase continue, Pokémon needs to avoid the following traps:

1. They must avoid printing so much new product that they crash the market, and

2. They need to make Pokémon products available enough that collectors stay engaged.

#1 is how The Pokémon Company ended the 2020 pandemic boom: massive reprints of sets like Chilling Reign and Fusion Strike (and more) crashed the market and drove all kinds of collectors and investors from the market.

But, this time around, we still haven’t seen any evidence they will flood the market with supply again. Instead, The Pokémon Company seems to be ramping up print volumes gradually, as if they are actively trying to avoid crashing the market… (Believe it or not: this is surprising. The Pokémon Company has never seemed to care if they crashed the market…)

Instead, I’m starting to think #2 might be the bigger risk: collector burnout.

But, I’m biased: I’ve been feeling disconnected from Pokémon for while.

I opted out of Pokémon collecting since November 2024. I’ve barely opened packs, and I’ve added very few new sealed products to my collection. I know how difficult (and expensive) it is to continue collecting when the market is in the Boom Phase, so I simply chose not to.

And the longer we’re in this booming market, the more likely it is more collectors decide to opt out too. If this becomes a trend, it will have a real impact on the short-term demand for Pokémon cards. Maybe even enough to end the boom.

Fortunately, there is hope.

The latest release, Mega Evolutions, is incredible set. It’s arguably the greatest base Pokémon has ever produced since the original 1999 release! And products like the new Mega Charizard X UPC are a return to form, with great promos and other goodies for collectors to look forward to.

Perhaps most exciting of all: Pokémon’s 30th anniversary begins in early 2026 and there is no doubt The Pokémon Company has planned all kinds of events and special releases to celebrate the occasion, and draw collectors back into the market.

So, no, I don’t think the boom is ending. But I do think we’re at a critical moment where poor decisions from The Pokémon Company could end the boom.

They’re playing a delicate game, balancing supply and collector engagement.

Here’s hoping they get it right 🍻

P.S. My latest video is still in the works! I made great progress on it with the goal of having it live now, before I take a week off for a road trip with my partner. Unfortunately, I didn’t get it done 😅 But, that’s on me and so I’ll just have to work on it while I’m on the road. My promise is to have it out by this time next week, and sooner if I’m able!