No, Pokémon Isn’t Dying

This isn’t the end of Pokémon.

Over the past few weeks, I’ve seen more and more content about the end of the Pokémon boom. Hell: even I’ve written about it. It’s clear that there is a growing fear among Pokémon collectors and investors.

There’s no need for panic.

Pokémon has proven to be truly resilient. It has survived for nearly 30 years, and has grown to an absolute powerhouse franchise and collectibles category. Everyone who has been participating in the hobby for 5 years or more has turned out just fine.

And, the ability for the Pokémon hobby to survive for this long is a sign: Pokémon isn’t going anywhere.

Many collectors take Pokémon’s long history for granted. They forget about the time between 2002 and 2016 when Pokémon nearly died after the first true market correction following the late 90’s Pokémania, and languished for nearly 15 years.

Most trading card games don’t survive this.

Just look at MetaZoo. 

Whenever a new TCG gains early traction, you start to see it’s collectors claiming that it’s “the new Pokémon”. They don’t realize that to become the new Pokémon the game needs to survive 15 dark years of pain and come out the other end stronger.

A game that has stood the test of time, is truly special.

Pokémon is special.

And, Pokémon’s resilience to date suggests it will continue to survive far into the future.

This is known as the Lindy Effect: the theorized phenomenon that proposes the longer something has survived, the longer its remaining life expectancy.

Since Pokémon has survived for nearly 30 years, the Lindy Effect suggests it should survive for at least another 30 years.

And there are many reasons to support this.

1. Time is a filter: anything that survives for a long time has proven its worth, relevance, or robustness; it’s like natural selection in the realm of intellectual property and ideas.

2. Markets are constantly testing what people value: something that has lasted reveals that many people, across many contexts and time periods, found it valuable enough to preserve, purchase, and share.

3. Network effects compound over time: the longer something exists, the more cultural memory and lock-in effects develop.

Of course, the Lindy Effect isn’t a guarantee, but it creates a strong case for the future of Pokémon - as long as you have a long-term perspective.

The truth is: we don’t know what’s going to happen next for the Pokémon market. The market has been in a plateau for the past 1.5 months… and a plateau like this is always threatening the calm before the Correction Phase…

But, it could also be nothing more than a pause before yet another upward phase of the Boom Phase.

But, if you have a long-term perspective, it doesn’t matter. In 5-10 years, Pokémon will still be here, and it’s likely to be bigger than ever. This is the nature of the Collectibles Cycle in a long-term, healthy and growing collectibles category.

So there’s no reason to be afraid for the future of Pokémon. The market will do whatever it’s going to do, and a couple years later Pokémon will be bigger and stronger than ever.

Enjoy the ride 🤘

As always,

Thank you so much for reading the TCG Buyers Club newsletter. My name’s Grey, I buy cardboard, and I’m on a mission to make collecting and investing in Pokémon simple.

Cheers 🍻

P.S. I don’t have much to add this week other than to say I really appreciate everyone who reads my newsletter. Thank you 🙏