Pokémon Collectors Have No Idea What They Want

After years collecting and investing in Pokémon, I simply can’t ignore it anymore:

Pokémon collectors have no idea what they want.

Just look at this Secret Rare Gyarados, which was utterly ignored by collectors for nearly a decade and has now, out of nowhere, surged 400% in price.

Released as part of XY BREAKpoint in early 2016, this Gyarados EX was the sole secret rare chase card of what was widely considered one of the worst sets from the XY era, XY BREAKpoint.

With an underwhelming set came and underwhelming price: the card remained a $30 USD card for years, as we can see in the Pokedata price chart (which only goes back to 2021… but you can be confident the price wasn’t much higher prior to then).

But, ever since the start of the Boom Phase in November 2024, everything changed. It turns out, a secret rare, shiny Gyarados card, featuring Greninja (and, to a lesser effect, Manaphy…) is a pretty damn cool card.

And collectors agree! For the first time in it’s history, the Gyarados EX secret rare is coveted by collectors and investors… even if it took them 9 years to realize it!

The truth is: it’s not their fault. The human mind has been wired to make it difficult for the average collector to recognize the true value of a card or product. Especially when it’s a cheap card from a set no one likes (more on that later).

And, I’ll admit: I also missed out on this card. Like many, I never felt compelled to buy a copy. Sure, I thought it was cool. But I definitely didn’t expect it to be worth hundreds of dollars just a few years later.

Here’s the thing: collectors and investors fall into this trap all the time. It stems from two powerful cognitive biases (hard-wired shortcuts in human thinking) that consistently lead to mistakes in judgment:

1. Scarcity Bias: the tendency to value rare items more, and

2. Price-Quality Heuristic: the tendency to assume more expensive items must be higher quality.

Each of these biases reinforces the other, creating a feedback loop that can send collectibles prices surging. You’ve probably seen it play out like this:

1. A card goes out of print. Collectors keep buying it, and as available copies dry up on the secondary market, the price starts to climb.

2. As the price climbs, the market begins to re-evaluate the card: “Wow, this card is actually pretty amazing!”

3. That positive narrative fuels even more demand, which makes copies harder to find, which drives prices even higher. The cycle repeats, with scarcity feeding price, and price feeding perception, until momentum runs its course.

During the current Pokémon boom, we’ve seen this dynamic apply to the Gyarados EX Secret Rare card, driving what started as a $50 USD card in Nov 2024 to it’s more than 4x high at over $200 less than a year later.

But, for most of this card’s history, the opposite was true: collectors simply ignored it. And that’s because these cognitive biases also work in reverse:

1. Scarcity Bias: we value scarce items more, and undervalue items that are common.

2. Price-Quality Heuristic: we value expensive items more, and undervalue items that are cheap.

And, for years since its release, this Gyarados EX suffered from this inverse effect. It was a widely available card, stuck at the $30 price point, and never attracted any significant attention. This apathy towards the card was made worse by XY BREAKpoint set’s poor reputation (and low booster box prices…)

I call this effect Abundance Blindness. Once you understand Abundance Blindness, you’ll start to see it everywhere in Pokémon (and beyond).

There are endless examples of collectibles that are under-appreciated due to Abundance Blindness.

Even though I’ve become hyper-aware of this phenomena, I still miss out on all kinds of obvious-in-hindsight opportunities. Like this Gyarados EX secret rare. Or literally any Tag Team GX card. Or even the cool Delta Species Mimkyu from Celebrations (a card I shared my love for on Instagram back in 2022 😩).

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That Mimikyu Delta Species had a TCGPlayer price below $1 USD and recently peaked at $20! (My lesson: don’t underestimate a cheap promo’s potential…)

Abundance Blindness is everywhere in Pokémon. The key to acting on it is to first recognize it, and then muster up the conviction to take the risk.

It’s easier said than done…

But, that’s why those who take the leap earn the rewards.

As always,

Thank you so much for tuning in to the TCG Buyers Club newsletter. My name’s Grey, I buy cardboard, and I’m on a mission to make collecting and investing in Pokémon simple.

Cheers 🍻

P.S. I’ve loved the reaction to last week’s video where I break down my recent Pokémon sales and go into very specific details about what I earned. As subscribers to my newsletter, if you have any questions you’d like me to go into more detail on, you can always reply to this email to ask. And, of course, if you missed the video don’t forget to check it out: